What the say/do ratio is
The say/do ratio — also called commitment reliability or sprint predictability — is simply how much you finished divided by how much you committed to:
say/do = completed ÷ committed
A team that committed to 30 points and completed 24 has a say/do of 80%. You already have both numbers — they're the grey and green bars on every velocity chart. The ratio just turns that pair into a single, comparable percentage, and averaging it over several sprints tells you how reliably the team delivers on what it takes on.
Why it matters more than raw velocity
Velocity answers “how much?”. Predictability answers “can we count on it?” — and for almost everyone downstream of the team, the second question is the important one. A roadmap built on a predictable team holds; a roadmap built on an erratic one is fiction, however high the average.
Atlassian's own guidance on velocity in Scrum frames velocity as a planning aid that becomes more useful as it stabilises. The say/do ratio is the most direct way to measure that stability: a flat, healthy ratio is the signal that your velocity is trustworthy enough to forecast with.
What a healthy ratio looks like
| Say/do (avg) | What it usually means |
|---|---|
| 80–100% | Healthy. The team plans realistically and delivers what it commits to. |
| below ~70% | Chronic over-commitment. Plans are too ambitious; stakeholders see repeated misses. |
| consistently >100% | Under-commitment or padded estimates. The team could pull in more, or is sandbagging. |
| swinging wildly | Unstable process — estimation, scope change or interruptions are dominating, not pace. |
The target is a stable ratio in the healthy band — not 100% every sprint, and definitely not “as high as possible.” A team that hits exactly 100% every single sprint is usually managing the number, not the work.
Don't weaponise it. The moment say/do becomes a target imposed on a team, it gets gamed — teams quietly commit to less so the ratio always looks good. Use it as a conversation starter in the retrospective (“why did we miss?”), never as a stick. Like velocity, it's a diagnostic, not a KPI to maximise.
A quick worked read
Here are five sprints for one team:
| Sprint | Committed | Completed | Say/Do |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 28 | 24 | 86% |
| 22 | 30 | 18 | 60% |
| 23 | 26 | 25 | 96% |
| 24 | 32 | 20 | 63% |
| 25 | 27 | 24 | 89% |
Average velocity is a respectable ~22 — but the say/do bounces between 60% and 96%. The pattern says this team over-commits in some sprints (22, 24) and plans well in others (21, 23, 25). The fix isn't speed; it's planning to a tighter, more consistent commitment. That insight is invisible if you only look at the completed average.
How to improve predictability
- Commit to your proven average, not your best sprint. If completed averages 22, don't plan 30. Plan ~22 and protect it.
- Cap work in progress. Finishing what's started beats starting everything; half-done stories at sprint end are the main drag on say/do.
- Make scope changes visible. If work is routinely pulled in mid-sprint, that's a planning or prioritisation problem worth surfacing — it depresses say/do even when the team is delivering.
- Break down big stories. One 13-pointer that slips wrecks a sprint's ratio; five 2- and 3-pointers degrade gracefully.
- Review the ratio in the retro. A single number the whole team can see makes the “why did we miss?” conversation concrete.
Tracking it without a spreadsheet
Jira's native velocity report shows the two bars but doesn't compute the ratio for you — so most teams either eyeball it or copy numbers into a spreadsheet each sprint. Velocity Chart for Jira calculates say/do automatically, per sprint and as an average, right on the dashboard next to the committed-vs-completed bars and the average-velocity line. Because you can also set your own Definition of Done and estimation field, the ratio reflects how your team actually finishes work — and you can export the full series to CSV for a deeper look.
Frequently asked questions
What is the say/do ratio?
Completed work divided by committed work for a sprint, as a percentage — also called commitment reliability or sprint predictability. Committed 30, completed 24 → 80%. Averaged over several sprints it measures how reliably a team delivers what it commits to.
What is a good say/do ratio?
Roughly 80–100% is healthy. Below about 70% points to chronic over-commitment; consistently above 100% suggests under-committing or padded estimates. Aim for a stable ratio you can plan around, not the highest number.
Is predictability better than velocity?
They answer different questions — velocity is how much, predictability is how reliably. A stable, predictable team is more valuable for forecasting and trust than a fast but erratic one, so read the two together.
Does Jira calculate the say/do ratio?
The native velocity report shows committed and completed but doesn't compute the ratio. Tools like Velocity Chart for Jira calculate say/do automatically, per sprint and on average, on a dashboard.
See your predictability, not just your pace
Velocity Chart for Jira shows the say/do ratio per sprint and on average — alongside committed vs completed and the average line — on any dashboard.
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